Markets predict Bank of England will hold rates in May

Mark-Carney-with-bank-note-in-background-700.jpgMarkets are currently pricing in a 92 per cent chance that there will be no change to interest rates this month and just an 8 per cent chance of a rise, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.

A month ago the markets were pricing in a 98 per cent chance of a rate rise by May, the firm says, but gloomy economic news has altered perceptions.

Poor retail sales, slower inflation, disappointing growth figures and comments from Mark Carney playing down the chances of a rise have all impacted sentiment.

Hargreaves Lansdown personal finance analyst Sarah Coles says: “Back in early April, a rate rise at the May meeting was so widely predicted that it seemed nailed on.

“However, over the past few weeks, the picture has changed dramatically.

“A slew of disappointing data, and efforts by Mark Carney to talk down the chances of a rate rise, mean the markets are now pricing in the chance of a rise at just 8 per cent.

“Of course, a rate rise remains a possibility, but this is yet another ample demonstration of the futility of trying to guess the date of the next interest rate rise.”

SPF Private Clients chief executive Mark Harris adds: “What we have seen is a number of lenders raise mortgage rates in recent weeks on the back of higher Swap rates but they are still very reasonably-priced as lenders compete for business in a fairly subdued market.”



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