In its Economic and fiscal outlook published today, the OBR says that from receipts of £6bn in 2010-2011, Stamp Duty income will increase to £6.4bn in 2012-13 and to £7.4bn in 2013-14, before climbing to £8.7bn in 2014-15, £9.9bn in 2015-16 and £11.1bn in 2016-17.
The OBR says that receipts are expected to grow only modestly in 2012-13 as the property market is forecast to remain weak.
But it says that thereafter receipts are expected to grow strongly alongside an anticipated recovery in the property market as credit conditions begin to normalise and economic growth strengthens.
However, compared with the OBR’s previous forecast in November, Stamp Duty receipts are lower in each year from 2012-13 onwards, which it says reflects the weaker outlook for the residential and commercial property markets.
The OBR says: “The positive impact of the new Budget 2012 measures on Stamp Duty receipts is more than offset by the effect of lower forecasts for residential prices and commercial property volumes.”