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UK no longer in recession

The National Institute for Economic & Social Research has reported that the UK has exited recession after ceasing to contract.

Its monthly estimates of GDP suggests that the UK grew by 0.1% during in the three months to the end of May, after shrinking by 0.1% in the three months to end of April.

The latest estimates reveal economic activity remains very weak, with a negative output gap likely to widen further as the economy remains “stagnant”.

It adds: “We expect the UK economy to remain broadly ’flat’ over the next six months. While significant downside risks persist, we expect economic recovery to begin to take hold in 2013.” (article continues below)

NIESR says though the recession period – where output is falling or receding – is over, the UK remains in a depression, with output depressed below previous peaks. Output is not expected to pass its 2008 peak until 2014.

According to NIESR, its projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2%, compared with the first estimate by the Office for National Statistics.

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Comments
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  • Andrew Botte 12th June 2012 at 10:58 pm

    Does anyone believe any of the statistics that get rolled out?

    As a layman I can see the economy is a lot more than flat. The average Joe has no spare cash, and is more concerned about holding on to their job than spending what little they have.

    Small businesses are suffering due to a lack of liquidity and the ever increasing squeeze placed on them by supermarket sized manufacturers and suppliers across many sectors, both home and abroad.

    I’m just waiting to see how the Office for National Statistics dresses the impending gloom after we had all our tax money (direct or indirect) to the Spaniards and Italians.

    Still it’s not all bad. We still have our gold reserves don’t we? NIESR say’s – Or should that be SIREN? Those clever Greek’s.