The Office for National Statistics today confirmed the UK economy grew by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter. Following the announcement, leading economic think tanks are already claiming to have evidence to suggest that the economy will prove to have contracted in the fourth quarter.
Capital Economics chief UK economist Vicky Redwood says the outlook is far from optimistic.
She says: “GDP is still estimated to have risen strongly in Q3, but we already have plenty of evidence to suggest that the economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the UK could already be in a “triple-dip”. We think that the economy will struggle to grow by a meaningful amount next year.”
Capital Economics says the UK economy is likely to have contracted by 01. per cent or 0.2 per cent over the course of 2012 and offers a revised outlook for 2013 – down from 0.5 per cent growth to just 0.2 per cent.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research also warns of the UK’s “highly fragile” economic outlook and anticipates less than 1 per cent growth next year.
CEBR senior economist Scott Corfe says: “Combined with the fact that Q3 growth was propped up by Olympic ticket sales and an extra Bank Holiday in Q2, growth looks set to be pushed back into the negative. If growth comes out negative in Q1 2013 as well – something which can’t be ruled out – then the UK would find itself in the midst of a triple-dip recession.”