Analytical disorder grips the market

Evidence of compulsive predictive fallacy syndrome – otherwise known as CPFS – is growing, possibly in response to analysts suffering from post-credit crunch stress disorder (PCCSD).

The classic symptom of CPFS is an overwhelming compulsion to produce complicated predictions and forecasts, possibly to compensate for having completely failed to see the credit crunch coming in the first place.

One terrifying example is a forecast by compliance specialist Complinet which states that economic Armageddon will strike in 2015. Well, that’s not exactly its view but the opinion of 77% of the “world’s senior banking and compliance officers” polled by the company.