The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association is expecting gross mortgage lending of no more than £130bn in 2012, some £3bn lower than the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ prediction.
In December 2011 the CML downgraded its forecast for 2012 from £150bn to £133bn.
Lenders have yet to reveal their figures for 2011, but gross lending is expected to be around £138bn.
IMLA’s prediction follows a survey it conducted in December, when it asked members for their economic predictions for 2012.
Some expect a recession, with GDP at -2%, but others predict it will be relatively positive at +1.5%. On average members expect GDP of +0.91% for the year.
By the end of 2012, IMLA members expect inflation to fall materially within a range of 2-4%, the average prediction being a drop in inflation to 2.79%.
Peter Williams, executive director of IMLA, says the survey results may look negative but they represent a realistic outlook for the year ahead and brokers should try to use the results to their advantage.
He adds: “The market remains very limited, which is why intermediaries can play such an important role to help consumers.
“Matching lenders and products to consumers is crucial to ensure sustainable lending. CML figures show that in Q3 2011, intermediaries accounted for nearly two-thirds of sales – 64% of first-time buyer loans, 57% of remortgages and 52% of home movers.”
IMLA members are confident that the role of the intermediary will remain important over the next five years and expect that by 2016 brokers will hold 59% of the first-time buyer market, 60% of the remortgage market, 51% of the home mover market and 82% of the buy-to-let market.