London on the verge of recession

cebr&#39s latest updated forecasts for the London economy in it&#39s regular forecasting publication, Quarterly Business Forecasts: London, show a series of changes in the estimates for London&#39s GDP.

GDP growth for 2001 is now estimated to be higher than was originally thought at 2.3%instead of 1.8%. As a result, although estimated GDP for 2002 is largely unchanged, the estimate for London&#39s GDP growth for 2002 has fallen from 0.7% in August to 0.2% in the latest forecast.

The forecast does in fact show two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2002 (which is the technical definition of a recession) but given the uncertainty about estimates for an individual quarter cebr believes it is more realistic to describe London as &#39on the verge of a recession&#39 based on the annual data.