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My prediction on recovery

Economic and house price forecasting is not an exact science. As the old adage goes, if you say something enough it will eventually happen.


You only have to look at Capital Economics’ predictions over the last 10 years to know that to be true, with house prices across the country now well and truly down by the ankles from where they were two years ago.

Former Fidelity fund manager Anthony Bolton has thrown his hat in the ring again – he’s been wrong twice in the last 12 months – telling the Financial Mail that “all the conditions I see for a recovery on prices are there”.

Third time lucky? Perhaps. But while we await a miracle and for the financial markets to return to some normality, I’m going to throw my two pennyworth into the hat for when to expect a mortgage market recovery.

The Robyn Hall Predictor Index, based on nothing other than I might as well have a punt, says we’ll be looking at the bottom of the market when we see 0% growth in the Halifax or Nationwide house price index three months in a row.

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