View more on these topics

Gross lending up but slow market predicted for 2010


Gross mortgage lending was up 5% to £13.6bn in July, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Lending is up from £12.9bn in June but down 3% from £14bn in July 2009.

The data suggests that lending remains on track to meet the CML’s revised forecast of £140bn, revealed earlier this month.

Its previous £150bn forecast was downgraded by £10bn and the net lending forecast reduced from £15bn to £12bn.
Paul Samter, economist at the CML, says lending will remain low in a slow mortgage market this year.

But he adds: “The majority of households continue to pay their mortgages in full every month and many have benefited from the record low interest rates.

“This looks set to continue for some time. While there are a range of risks to the outlook, low rates will help most people stay on top of their finances.”

He adds: “The rest of 2010 is likely to see lower lending and transaction numbers compared with the same period last year. Late 2009 saw a pick up as some home buyers looked to move before the end of the first Stamp Duty holiday.”

And David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgage for Business, says there are new lenders in the market and house prices remain stable.

He adds: “Lending will remain subdued as we move into 2011 as the economy faces up to the funding gap, regulation becoming tight and the recovery advancing more slowly than expected.”

David Hollingworth, head of communications at London & Country, says: “Obviously gross lending is up but you are still talking about figures that are leading the CML to reduce its estimates for total gross lending in 2010 by £10bn.

“So how you look at the 5% increase depends on whether you take a glass half full or half empty approach.”



Scorecards are not there just to annoy

Some people would have you believe that lenders that use scorecards are making life difficult for brokers by inferring that scorecards decline good borrowers who would otherwise be accepted. While this may be a convenient marketing story, it is not actually the case. I have worked for lenders that use scorecards and ones that do […]


My thoughts on the Policy Exchange forecast of Bank Rate at 8% in 2012

No doubt the reason Andrew Lilico, chief economist of Policy Exchange, which calls itself a think tank, chose to issue his paper forecasting Bank Rate would rise to 8% in 2012 this week is that in the August silly season when real political news is thin on the ground it is much easier to grab some headlines by publishing an outrageous forecast than when senior politicians are around to rubbish such forecasts. Policy Exchange must be desperate for some publicity.


Consumers choosing broker deals over direct when searching online

Four out of five consumers con-sidered deals available through brokers ahead of direct ones in July, mortgage sourcing tool provider Mortgage27 reports. Mortgage27 offers online mort-gage sourcing via brokers’ own web-sites where both direct and broker products are offered side by side. Customers are unaware whether deals are available direct or via intermediaries when searching […]

UK policy: Kate Moss and short-termism

“Nothing tastes as good as skinny feels,” said supermodel Kate Moss, who is not often credited for her insights into policy making. Perhaps she should be. In politics, as in matters of diet, the course of action that is the best over the long term is often not the most desirable course of action in the short term. Add the instant gratification of the democratic electoral cycle and, instead of good policy making, you sometimes get the equivalent to a midnight binge in front of the fridge.

Read more

Important information

Investment risks

The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Forecasts and past performance are not a guide to future performance. Some information and statistical data herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to their accuracy or completeness. These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you of any change to our views.


News and expert analysis straight to your inbox

Sign up