UK recovery has passed its peak, says Experian

Experian has warned that the UK economy will not deliver Gordon Brown’s latest estimates for growth because the current cycle has now peaked, reveals Experian.

Dr Neil Blake, director of economics and forecasting at Experian, says: “UK growth will reach 3.1% this year, but slow to 2.8% in 2005, well below the Treasury’s estimate of 3-3.5%.”

“Not only is our forecast less optimistic than the government’s but, if realised, would greatly increase the prospect of post-election tax rises to secure the chancellor’s golden rule.

“Even when the growth targets have been hit, the government has missed its financial targets, which makes us doubly concerned abou the financial outlook.”

Experian also suggests house prices across the UK are in for a couple of difficult years with little overall increase between now and 2007, though no sudden crash is expected.