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Most brokers expect 0.5% base rate to last

Two thirds of brokers now expect the Bank of England base rate to remain at 0.5 per cent for at least another year.

A survey of brokers compiled by United Trust Bank shows 66 per cent expect the central bank to further hold the base rate where it has remained since March 2009. This majority anticipate no change to the rate until at least 2014.

While 33 per cent of those polled expect the rate to increase in 2014, 22 per cent say they do not anticipate any change at all until at least 2015.

Just 8 per cent predict the rate will come down further before going up again.

United Trust Bank managing director Harley Kagan says: “The Bank of England has held its base rate at 0.5 per cent for an unprecedented 43 consecutive months and according to the majority of the broker community we are unlikely to see a change for at least another year.

“Under the leadership of new Governor Mark Carney it is expected that the MPC will continue with its low interest rate policy. Borrowers will no doubt hope that when he takes over the role in June 2013 he steers a similar course to his predecessor while savers would welcome their nest eggs working a little harder.”

Sentiment in the UK economy is expected to pick up next year by 14 per cent of respondents while 38 per cent say 2014 is a more likely point for the economy to show improvement.

Just 8 per cent say they expect the outlook to remain gloomy until 2016 or later.


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