View more on these topics

IMF warns Brexit could cause severe global damage


The IMF says Brexit could cause “severe regional and global damage” and is cutting its global growth forecast for the second time this year.

A vote for a Brexit at the June referendum would disrupt established trading relationships and add to political strains in Europe stemming from the Syrian refugee crisis, the IMF’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook report says.

The IMF has downgraded the 2016 UK growth forecast by 30 basis points from its January forecast, to 1.9 per cent, and  has reduced the 2017 forecast to 2.2 per cent.

Lower energy prices and a buoyant property market will offset headwinds from the uncertainty resulting from the lead up to the Brexit referendum as well as fiscal consolidation.

In contrast to other advanced economies, where currencies such as the yen and US dollar tended to strengthen, the UK pound depreciated 7 per cent between August and February, driven by concerns about a potential Brexit as well as expectations of normalisation of monetary policy.

The IMF has also downgraded global growth projections, to 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2017 – 20 basis points lower than its prediction in October, but slightly up on 2015’s growth.

Brexit ranked seventh in a list of near-term risks to the world economy, behind instability in emerging economies, economic transition in China, strains in oil reliant countries, a reduction in confidence and growth, and geopolitical risks.

Brazil, currently embroiled in a major corruption scandal, saw the largest downgrade in its growth, forecast to contract 3.5 per cent compared to 2 per cent growth forecast in October.

However, the IMF said advanced economies had “partially reversed their swoon” from the first couple of weeks of the year, due to stablising oil prices, lower capital outflows from China and central bank policy.

The report says China’s transition towards more sustainable growth based on consumption and services would ultimately benefit China and the world, while warning there would be “bumps along the way”. 



Countrywide buys specialist development broker

Countrywide has bought residential development specialist broker Mortgage Bureau. The firm, which has 50 consultants, works alongside national house builders and estate agents and offers advice on mortgages and insurance, primarily in the land and new homes sector. The company is an appointed representative of Mortgage Advice Bureau and generated £0.9bn of mortgage lending in […]

Brightstar joins Kensington’s new specialist distributor panel

Brightstar has become the first firm to join Kensington’s new specialist distributor panel. Essex-based Brightstar will offer Kensington’s core range of residential and buy-to-let products in addition to a 90 per cent LTV residential semi-exclusive. Rates on the 90 per cent LTV product start from 4.89 per cent for a two-year fixed rate and 5.19 […]

Trash Talk: ‘Actionable information’

Mortgage Monkey reveals the gibberish littering the industry’s press communications BUSINESS SPEAK OF THE WEEK: ‘Actionable information’ CULPRIT: Nasdaq/Verisk Analytics Proving that no one has mastered the art of business speak quite like the Americans, this execrable expression jumped out and bit Mortgage Monkey on the nose last week. In a market release the analytics […]


News and expert analysis straight to your inbox

Sign up

Why register with Mortgage Strategy?

Mortgage Strategy continues to be the market-leading B2B mortgage publication in the UK, and provides trusted, independent insight with the aim of helping, promoting and analysing the latest developments for mortgage professionals.

News & analysis delivered directly to your inbox
Register today to receive our range of news alerts including daily and weekly briefings

Mortgage Strategy Events
Be the first to hear about our industry leading conferences, awards, webinars and more.

Research and insight
Take part in and see the results of Mortgage Strategy's flagship investigations into industry trends.

Have your say
Only registered users can post comments. As the voice of the adviser community, our content generates robust debate. Sign up today and make your voice heard.

Register now