The Council of Mortgage Lenders has downgraded its 2017 lending forecasts from £261bn to £248bn due to economic uncertainties, tax increases and housing regulatory changes.
The CML now expects gross lending of £248 billion in 2017 and £252 billion in 2018, with net lending of £30 billion in each of those years.
CML director general Paul Smee says: “Overall, the mortgage market remains resilient but is likely to plateau rather than grow much for the next couple of years. Gross lending is likely to hover around the £250bn mark in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
“Property transactions look set to drift down slightly, although we do not expect house prices to fall, and net lending seems unlikely to get above £30bn next year.”
Anderson Harris director Jonathan Harris says: ‘It is no surprise that the CML has revised its forecast for the mortgage market downwards for next year.
“2016 has been a tricky year with challenges presented by high stamp duty costs and the referendum outcome, and uncertainty will continue into next year, coupled with the impending changes to mortgage interest tax relief for landlords which will have a negative impact on buy-to-let.”