Now the CML says it expects to see just 48,000 repossessions this year
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The Council of Mortgage Lenders has dramatically cut its forecast for the number of repossessions in 2009 from 65,000 to 48,000.
In December 2008 the trade body predicted there would be 75,000 repossessions this year. This forecast was revised down to 65,000 in June but has now been cut again as a result of lender forbearance, government measures and continuing low interest rates.
Latest figures from the CML show that in Q3 2009 the number and proportion of mortgages in arrears both fell. At the end of September some 194,600 mortgages - 1.77% of all mortgages - were in arrears of 2.5% or more of the outstanding balance.
This compares with 204,200 cases, or 1.86% of all mortgages, at the end of June.
But the number of repossessions has increased slightly, going from 11,400 in Q2 to 11,700 in Q3. The current level of repossessions is 5% higher than in Q3 2008, but remains lower than the 12,700 repossessions seen in Q1.
The CML says around a quarter of all repossessions in Q3 took place without court orders, similar to the proportion in the previous three months.
Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, says: “We are glad to have been wrong with our previous forecast for repossessions this year.
“Although the economy is not out of the woods yet we no longer expect a dramatic rise in the number of properties being repossessed unless interest rates rise from the low levels that most commentators now expect to persist for some time.”
Mark Blackwell, managing direc-tor of Xit2, says: “As far back as February we were saying the CML’s repossession forecast was at least 10,000 too high. The figures were too pessimistic and it’s no surprise they have been revised down again.
“Repossession is now seen as the last resort and only occurs when all other reasonable attempts to resolve a case of arrears have failed.”
The CML figures also reveal that gross buy-to-let lending hit £2.1bn in Q3, up 10% on the previous three months. The number of buy-to-let loans rose from 21,600 in Q2 to 23,700 in Q3, although the trade body notes that this modest recovery is from a low base.
Buy-to-let loans now represent 11% of all mortgages, with 1,205,000 outstanding buy-to-let loans worth £144.2bn.
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