UK GDP could fall by 0.1% in Q4
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Economic data firm Markit has warned that UK GDP for Q4 could fall by 0.1% after three of its purchasing managers indices dipped in October.
Its PMI surveys for new orders and employment, manufacturing output and service sector output all dipped last month with a risk weighted average of 51.0 in October, down from 52.7 in September.
Markit says that with the exception of August, the latest reading was the weakest since June 2009.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, says: “This suggests that the private sector economy is expanding, but only at a very modest pace, and that the wider economy – as measured GDP – probably stagnated in October.”
If there is any worsening of PMI data in November and December he says UK GDP could contract by
by 0.1% in Q4, with a decline of 0.2% possible if economic trends deteriorate further with the UK’s major trading partners.
He adds: “Even a 0.1% drop in GDP in the fourth quarter would leave growth for the whole year at just 1.0%.”
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