UK unemployment declines
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The unemployment rate for the three months to May 2010 was 7.8%, down 0.1% on the previous quarter, show the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics.
The number of unemployed people fell by 34,000 over the quarter to reach 2.47 million.
The number of people unemployed for up to six months fell by 54,000, to reach 1.16 million.
However, the number of people unemployed for more than twelve months increased by 61,000 over the quarter to reach 787,000, the highest figure since the three months to March 1997.
The employment rate for the three months to May 2010 was 72.3%, up 0.3 on the quarter.
The number of people in employment increased by 160,000 on the quarter to reach 28.98 million.
The quarterly increase in total employment was mainly driven by part-time employees,which increased by 117,000 on the quarter to reach 6.63 million, and self employment, which rose by 59,000 on the quarter to reach 3.93 million.
The number of full-time employees fell by 22,000 on the quarter to reach 18.20 million.
However the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has warned that unemployment could still be £2.5m by 2015.
John Philpott, chief economic adviser at the CIPD, says against the backdrop of massive public-sector job downsizing it doesn’t require anything like a double-dip recession to cause a serious prolonged jobs deficit, merely economic growth in the range of 2-2.5% annum rather than the above trend annual growth rates the OBR expects and the coalition government is hoping for.
He says: “A slightly milder growth outcome – which many would consider a decent recovery in output given the various strong headwinds at present facing the economy – is easily as imaginable as the OBR’s central forecast and would leave unemployment still close to 2.5 million by 2015, meaning Britain faces at least half a decade of serious prolonged jobs deficit.”
Under OBR projections, the total number of people in work starts to rise next year and continues to rise through to 2015, resulting in a net gain in employment of 1.3 million between 2010 and 2015.
Unemployment, meanwhile, peaks at 8.1%, or around 2.5 million, in 2010.
However, the CIPD, using only slightly more pessimistic growth assumptions, forecasts the economy will shed 300,000 jobs by 2012 before job creation kicks in, resulting in a peak for unemployment of 9.5% (2.95 million) in 2012 before falling to 8% by 2015.
Philpott adds: “So will fiscal pain spur private-sector jobs gain, as the coalition’s economic strategy assumes? Yes, but probably not very much, and certainly not any time soon.”
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Readers' comments (5)
John Lacy | 14 Jul 2010 11:05 am
What about the 6 million who are deemed "economically inactive".
True unemployment is in excess of 8,000,000 so why doesn't the new government publicise the sham figures that have been inherited from Labour
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Mel Samuels | 14 Jul 2010 11:23 am
@John Lacy - the figures were orginally manipulated in 80 and 90s by the Tories so how can they
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Tom IFA | 14 Jul 2010 11:53 am
I would be interested in the numbers of people in the UK unable to work for reasons of obesity, drug dependency, alcohol dependence, teenage pregnancy, asylum seekers. If we could have these published on a monthly basis then broken down into regions we might start to understand the problems more.
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Anonymous | 14 Jul 2010 1:52 pm
NO unemployment has NOT declined just rearranged.
ONS figures show a quarterly rise of 148,000 in part-timers to 7.82 million the highest level since records began in 1992.
27% of the total workforce is part time.
Full time emploees fell by 22,000 over the month.
People out of work for more than a year reached a 13 year high of 787,000. A 61,000 rise in the three months to May.
Therefore the stats do not reflect the reality since part time workers are immedialy taken off the DSS and other records that relate to benefit claims. The reality of matters remain as previous subscribers have already remarked that the truth is still out there and needs to be made transparent.
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david | 15 Jul 2010 10:41 am
Have they factored in the remainder of the Mortgage Broking community that will be added to these figures by the end of the year?
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