L&G advisers expect no increase in business in Q4
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Legal & General’s latest adviser survey shows 42% of ARs think business over the next quarter will be flat, this is broadly consistent with the previous surveys in Q2 and Q3.
Some 23% of advisers believe that next quarter will be worse, and this figure has in fact risen from 15% in Q3 and 6% in Q2.
Stephen Smith, Legal & General’s director of Housing, says: “This isn’t really surprising, though, considering that this period covers the year-end when volumes are traditionally down, so I would call this realistic rather than pessimistic.
“However, we believe that there are plenty of things to be positive about, what with house prices showing a mini recovery, absent lenders potentially looking to come back into the market and more products at higher loan-to-values.
“In addition, there is a lot of interest in the commercial market, the buy-to-let market is showing signs of growth for the first time in a long time, and house builders such as Persimmon are generally quite bullish.”
He says house purchase business has been taking an increasing share of mortgage brokers’business, representing a predicted 50% over the next three months, compared to a forecast of just 19% this time a year ago.
He adds: “Conversely, remortgage business continues to be thin on the ground, with brokers telling us that it wouldn’t be more than a third of their mortgage business over the next quarter.
“When the remortgage market does come back, it will come back in a big way and borrowers are going to start shuffling around quickly. This begs the question as to what preparations brokers are doing in order to keep the clients that they have already got. We would encourage brokers to start reviewing their books, identifying people on standard variable rates without tie-ins and making lists of prospects to call when the time is right.”
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