Interest rates could stay on hold until 2014
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Interest rates will be kept on hold at 0.5% until the end of 2013, predicts leading economist Ernst & Young.
It says high energy prices and the increases in VAT will keep CPI inflation above target over the next 18 months, but it will then move well below 2% as these effects wear off and spare capacity bears down on pricing decisions and wage bargaining.
To prevent CPI inflation moving below 1% it says it will be necessary to keep the Bank base rate low at 0.5% for much longer than the markets have anticipated.
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club forecasts that the base rate will remain on hold until the end of 2013, although this is dependent on the assumption that the impending spending cuts actually come through.
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, says: “A base rate of 0.5% will begin to look like the new normal.”
He says the fiscal tightening implemented by the new coalition should not choke off the recovery, but it will slow UK economic growth over the next two years.
The chancellor’s five-year plan to cut the deficit while keeping the pace of the economic recovery is very ambitious.
But ITEM Club believes that in the long term it will lead to more sustainable high-quality growth from 2013 because it will be led by business investment and exports, rather than public spending.
Spencer says: “On the assumption that the government is able to implement the overall reduction of £40bn it set out in the budget, we expect that UK growth will struggle to reach 1% this year but will gradually speed up in the following years to give the UK a high-quality recovery based on trade and investment.”
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Readers' comments (3)
Anonymous | 26 Jul 2010 4:17 pm
I really wish these so called experts would prove their claims or shut up. Too many assumptions and probables in these articles. Tomorrow they will pluck another figure from thin air. Rates simply cannot stay at 0.5% for much longer.
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Bobby | 26 Jul 2010 4:49 pm
Interest rates at 0.5% are the sign of a busted and very unheathly economy and are a disaster measure. Why do people think rates could stay that low for 5 years when they never went below 2% in its 400 year history. It is also very unhealthy for people to get used to paying nothing on their mortgage and they will adjust their spending and lifestyle around this. I think the sonner rates go up the better. Rates should be 5% in a low inflation economy not 0.5%.
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Anonymous | 27 Jul 2010 9:11 pm
rates will need to rise way before the so called experts above predict- as part of the econemy getting back to a normal and stable growth- some members of the monetry policy commette have indeed already tried to increase the bass rate to 0.75%
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