Broker spirits rise in September

Laura Stavro-Beauchamp
13-Oct-2008
Brokers are feeling better about business volumes in September than they were in May or July but confidence remains fragile.
The Intermediary Mortgages Lenders Association polled 486 brokers about future levels of mortgage business and most expected a fall of around 0.4% in remortgages and 2.3% in first-time buyer business in October and November.

But IMLA says this reflects a slightly more positive outlook than in May 2008, when first-time buyer business was expected to fall by almost 5%.

A year ago, in October 2007, expectations for remortgage and other business were in positive territory, although brokers were predicting that first-time buyer, home mover and buy-to-let business would decline over the following period.

IMLA’s index of intermediary confidence, based on the number of mortgages currently being introduced and their expectations regarding future volumes, has shown a gradual decline since it was first computed in March this year. However, after significant falls between March and May, and between May and July, the rate of decline in confidence has eased slightly.

Peter Williams, executive director of IMLA, says: “These survey results, obtained from brokers before the latest volatility in international markets, appear to offer a glimmer of hope that confidence among brokers is starting to return, very slowly.

“The sharp falls in expected business volumes and in confidence do seem to have been arrested – although last week’s events suggest that we are far from out of the woods and the recent Bank of England Credit conditions survey points to lender expectations of tighter lending in Q4 2008.”

Williams says the tripartite authorities have been jolted by external events into taking firm action to provide additional liquidity and offering public sector support to both the markets and much of the financial services industry shows they are taking seriously the threat of global recession.

He adds: “While the seriousness of the situation remains worrying, we do welcome the government’s involvement although we would like to see support extended to all lenders including the non-bank sector. We await Sir James Crosby’s report with baited breath.”