Brokers ridicule buy-to-let predictions

4 September 2006

Brokers have slammed property expert David Lawrenson's prediction that by 2026 over half of UK houses will be buy-to-let or second homes as ridiculous.

Lawrenson, who works for property consultancy Letting Focus, is set to explain his predictions at The Property Investor Show later this month.

In what show organisers are calling 'groundbreaking speeches', Lawrenson will claim that since housing supply will not keep up with demand and the stock market is too volatile to make an investment, buy-to-let will take 50% of the market.

But brokers have ridiculed the idea as foolish speculation.

Danny Lovey, managing director of the Mortgage Practitioner, says: "The market will not die but things change and it's difficult to look more than a few years down the line, let alone to 2026.

"It will also depend on the government at the time. I don't see how anyone can make forecasts for 2026 without knowledge of what the government's plans will be in the next 20 years."

Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at John Charcol, agrees that the unknown changes that will take place between now and 2026 make it impossible to make predictions.

He says: "Anyone who makes a forecast like that is either clever or foolish. The government have to make plans like that but they always become inaccurate within five years. This prediction is most certainly wrong. I don't believe it will happen."

He adds: "Anyone can make a groundbreaking prediction. You just have to say something outrageous. These predictions are groundbreaking simply because they are so wrong."

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