60 Seconds With... Alan Cleary

1 June 2009

What is exact?

Exact is a one-stop shop for anybody who wants to have anything to do with mortgages, whether it’s due diligence, servicing or origination.

Your latest survey points to 9% fall in house prices but even Capital Economics is now talking about a rise. Can you explain this?

Capital Economics has got it wrong for the past 15 years so I wouldn’t take its predictions to heart. As a result of our research we believe there will be a peak to trough fall in house prices of 37%. Another million people will lose their jobs this year and our survey simply mirrors that fact.

What shape do you think this recession is?

Our view is that it’s an L-shape, but the bottom of the L is going to feature plenty of smaller ups and downs. If we are at the bottom of the L now we are bumping along a cobbled road.

We’re not convinced that everything we are seeing at the moment is truly representative of the state of the housing sector. For instance, there are a lot of forced sales that could be distorting the market.

will consumers be able to stay in their homes?

That will be the big question next year, if not before. And the answer will be down to the party in power.

The next government will have to look at whether it is sustainable to keep consumers in their homes. Obviously it is in owners’ best interests to remain in their homes but if they are made redundant and can’t get another job, will they be able to afford to?

are there any green shoots?

There are green shoots but they have no roots. If lenders are not lending the property market can’t come back - if you can’t get a mortgage you can’t buy a house.

I can’t see any bank at the moment that is doing any lending that could be classed as innovative.

Unfortunately, we are now in a loan to guess rather than a loan to value market and it will remain that way for some time.

This is bound to prohibit lenders from getting sexy with products any time soon.

l Interview by Robyn Hall